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UEFA Nations League · League C · Group 4 · Round 6
Mon, Nov 16, 2026 ยท 5:00 PM GMT

Iceland vs Luxembourg Prediction & Win Probability

Iceland has a 60% chance to win, with a 24% chance of a draw.

Rating 1591 · World #71
Form: DWWDL
VS
Rating 1454 · World #107
Form: LLLWW
Model Probability
60%
16%
Draw 24%

Group Impact

Chance of finishing in each Group 4 position, depending on this result

๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ธ Iceland

Scenario1st2nd3rd4th
As things stand84%13%3%<1%
Iceland win 97%3%<1%<1%
Draw 73%26%1%<1%
Luxembourg win 50%32%18%<1%

๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡บ Luxembourg

Scenario1st2nd3rd4th
As things stand2%7%31%60%
Iceland win <1%<1%28%72%
Draw <1%9%41%50%
Luxembourg win 14%28%27%32%

League C ยท Group 4

#Team P Pts Rating 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
1 Iceland 4 8 1591 84% 13% 3% <1%
2 Estonia 4 6 1428 9% 51% 26% 14%
3 Bulgaria 4 4 1505 5% 29% 40% 26%
4 Luxembourg 4 3 1454 2% 7% 31% 60%
Promoted to League B (1st) Promotion play-off (2nd)

Form Coming Into This Game

Last 10 internationals in any competition
IcelandStatLuxembourg
4-3-3Won-Drawn-Lost3-0-7
2.0Avg goals scored0.7
1.2Avg goals conceded1.6
1591Rating1454
#71World rank#107

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings (all internationals since 2010)
IcelandStatLuxembourg
1Wins (3 meetings, 1 draw)1
1Last 3 meetings (1 draw)1
1.67Average goals1.33
Last meeting (Tue, Sep 29, 2026, Nations League): Luxembourg 0–3 Iceland