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UEFA Nations League · League C · Group 4 · Round 4
Tue, Oct 6, 2026 ยท 7:45 PM BST

Luxembourg vs Bulgaria Prediction & Win Probability

Luxembourg has a 35% chance to win, with a 31% chance of a draw.

Rating 1473 · World #100
Form: WWLLL
VS
Rating 1514 · World #92
Form: WWWLL
Model Probability
35%
35%
Draw 31%

Group Impact

Chance of finishing in each Group 4 position, depending on this result

๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡บ Luxembourg

Scenario1st2nd3rd4th
As things stand15%26%32%26%
Luxembourg win 27%36%25%12%
Draw 12%27%34%27%
Bulgaria win 7%16%38%40%

๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฌ Bulgaria

Scenario1st2nd3rd4th
As things stand25%32%27%16%
Luxembourg win 13%25%36%26%
Draw 22%33%29%16%
Bulgaria win 38%39%18%5%

League C ยท Group 4

#Team P Pts Rating 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
– Iceland 0 0 1581 54% 26% 14% 6%
– Bulgaria 0 0 1514 25% 32% 27% 16%
– Luxembourg 0 0 1473 15% 26% 32% 26%
– Estonia 0 0 1410 6% 15% 26% 52%
Promoted to League B (1st) Promotion play-off (2nd) Ranking of 4th-placed teams (4th) Relegation play-off Relegated to League D

Form Coming Into This Game

Last 10 internationals in any competition
LuxembourgStatBulgaria
2-1-7Won-Drawn-Lost3-0-7
0.8Avg goals scored1.6
1.6Avg goals conceded2.5
1473Rating1514
#100World rank#92

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings (all internationals since 2010)
LuxembourgStatBulgaria
0Wins (5 meetings, 3 draws)2
0Last 5 meetings (3 draws)2
0.8Average goals1.2
Last meeting (Fri, Nov 15, 2024, Nations League): Luxembourg 0–1 Bulgaria

Recent Results

๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡บ Luxembourg

vs Malta
Tue, Mar 31, 2026 · Nations League · Pre-match win chance 62%
3–0
@ Malta
Thu, Mar 26, 2026 · Nations League · Pre-match win chance 48%
2–0
@ Northern Ireland
Mon, Nov 17, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 16%
0–1
vs Germany
Fri, Nov 14, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 4%
0–2
@ Slovakia
Mon, Oct 13, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 9%
0–2

๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฌ Bulgaria

@ Indonesia
Mon, Mar 30, 2026 · Fifa Series · Pre-match win chance 38%
1–0
@ Solomon Islands
Fri, Mar 27, 2026 · Fifa Series · Pre-match win chance 57%
10–2
vs Georgia
Tue, Nov 18, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 22%
2–1
@ Turkey
Sat, Nov 15, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 8%
0–2
@ Spain
Tue, Oct 14, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 2%
0–4