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UEFA Nations League · League C · Group 4 · Round 1
Sat, Sep 26, 2026 ยท 5:00 PM BST

Bulgaria vs Luxembourg Prediction & Win Probability

Bulgaria has a 46% chance to win, with a 29% chance of a draw.

Rating 1514 · World #92
Form: WWWLL
VS
Rating 1473 · World #100
Form: WWLLL
Model Probability
46%
25%
Draw 29%

Group Impact

Chance of finishing in each Group 4 position, depending on this result

๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฌ Bulgaria

Scenario1st2nd3rd4th
As things stand25%32%27%16%
Bulgaria win 36%40%19%6%
Draw 20%31%32%18%
Luxembourg win 11%20%38%30%

๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡บ Luxembourg

Scenario1st2nd3rd4th
As things stand15%26%32%26%
Bulgaria win 7%18%39%36%
Draw 16%29%30%25%
Luxembourg win 29%38%22%10%

League C ยท Group 4

#Team P Pts Rating 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
– Iceland 0 0 1581 54% 26% 14% 6%
– Bulgaria 0 0 1514 25% 32% 27% 16%
– Luxembourg 0 0 1473 15% 26% 32% 26%
– Estonia 0 0 1410 6% 15% 26% 52%
Promoted to League B (1st) Promotion play-off (2nd) Ranking of 4th-placed teams (4th) Relegation play-off Relegated to League D

Form Coming Into This Game

Last 10 internationals in any competition
BulgariaStatLuxembourg
3-0-7Won-Drawn-Lost2-1-7
1.6Avg goals scored0.8
2.5Avg goals conceded1.6
1514Rating1473
#92World rank#100

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings (all internationals since 2010)
BulgariaStatLuxembourg
2Wins (5 meetings, 3 draws)0
2Last 5 meetings (3 draws)0
1.2Average goals0.8
Last meeting (Fri, Nov 15, 2024, Nations League): Luxembourg 0–1 Bulgaria

Recent Results

๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฌ Bulgaria

@ Indonesia
Mon, Mar 30, 2026 · Fifa Series · Pre-match win chance 38%
1–0
@ Solomon Islands
Fri, Mar 27, 2026 · Fifa Series · Pre-match win chance 57%
10–2
vs Georgia
Tue, Nov 18, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 22%
2–1
@ Turkey
Sat, Nov 15, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 8%
0–2
@ Spain
Tue, Oct 14, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 2%
0–4

๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡บ Luxembourg

vs Malta
Tue, Mar 31, 2026 · Nations League · Pre-match win chance 62%
3–0
@ Malta
Thu, Mar 26, 2026 · Nations League · Pre-match win chance 48%
2–0
@ Northern Ireland
Mon, Nov 17, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 16%
0–1
vs Germany
Fri, Nov 14, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 4%
0–2
@ Slovakia
Mon, Oct 13, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 9%
0–2