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UEFA Nations League · League C · Group 4 · Round 5
Fri, Nov 13, 2026 ยท 7:45 PM GMT

Luxembourg vs Estonia Prediction & Win Probability

Luxembourg has a 44% chance to win, with a 30% chance of a draw.

Rating 1454 · World #107
Form: LLLWW
VS
Rating 1428 · World #120
Form: DWDDW
Model Probability
44%
27%
Draw 30%

Group Impact

Chance of finishing in each Group 4 position, depending on this result

๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡บ Luxembourg

Scenario1st2nd3rd4th
As things stand2%7%31%60%
Luxembourg win 5%15%53%27%
Draw <1%<1%18%82%
Estonia win <1%<1%7%93%

๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ช Estonia

Scenario1st2nd3rd4th
As things stand9%51%26%14%
Luxembourg win 2%42%26%30%
Draw 6%50%44%<1%
Estonia win 25%66%9%<1%

League C ยท Group 4

#Team P Pts Rating 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
1 Iceland 4 8 1591 84% 13% 3% <1%
2 Estonia 4 6 1428 9% 51% 26% 14%
3 Bulgaria 4 4 1505 5% 29% 40% 26%
4 Luxembourg 4 3 1454 2% 7% 31% 60%
Promoted to League B (1st) Promotion play-off (2nd)

Form Coming Into This Game

Last 10 internationals in any competition
LuxembourgStatEstonia
3-0-7Won-Drawn-Lost3-5-2
0.7Avg goals scored0.7
1.6Avg goals conceded0.9
1454Rating1428
#107World rank#120

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings (all internationals since 2010)
LuxembourgStatEstonia
0Wins (1 meeting, 0 draws)1
0Last 1 meeting (0 draws)1
0.0Average goals1.0
Last meeting (Sat, Oct 3, 2026, Nations League): Estonia 1–0 Luxembourg