Championship
Sat, Dec 5, 2026 · 12:30 PM GMT
Middlesbrough vs Derby Prediction & Win Probability
Middlesbrough has a 53% chance to win.
Model Probability
Draw 25%
Model Prediction Through Season
Derby
| Scenario | Win League | Automatic promotion | Promotion playoff | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | <1% | <1% | 8.0% | 30.8% |
| If Win | <1% | <1% | 11.4% | 21.7% |
| If Draw | <1% | <1% | 7.3% | 28.4% |
| If Lose | <1% | <1% | 4.5% | 34.5% |
Middlesbrough
| Scenario | Win League | Automatic promotion | Promotion playoff | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 4.3% | 12.0% | 48.5% | 1.0% |
| If Win | 4.1% | 13.8% | 52.5% | <1% |
| If Draw | 2.7% | 8.3% | 48.3% | 1.3% |
| If Lose | 2.3% | 6.6% | 44.0% | 2.5% |
| Middlesbrough | Stat | Derby |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Games played | 8 |
| 2.0 | Avg goals scored | 0.9 |
| 1.5 | Avg goals conceded | 1.8 |
| 50% / 38% / 12% | Win / Draw / Loss | 12% / 25% / 62% |
| 75% | Home win % / Away win % | 25% |
| Middlesbrough | Stat | Derby |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | All-time wins (27 meetings, 7 draws) | 8 |
| 3 | Last 5 meetings (0 draws) | 2 |
| 1.3 | Average goals | 1.1 |