Lightning @ Avalanche

NHL model probabilities, projected margin and matchup analysis
Final Score: Lightning 3 - Avalanche 6
Friday, October 23, 2026 at 9:00 PM ET
Tampa Bay
Lightning
7-2 Rating 1554
Form: WLWWW
3 – 6
Model Probability
47%
53%
Projected margin: Colorado Avalanche +0.5
Colorado
Avalanche
5-5 Rating 1557
Form: WLWLL

Model Prediction Through Season

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings
Stat Lightning Avalanche
All-time wins 29 31
Last 5 meetings 4 1
Average goals 2.9 3.1
Last meeting 4 2

Key Season Stats

Stat Lightning Avalanche
Games played 9 10
Avg goals scored 3.4 4.1
Avg goals conceded 2.6 3.1
Win percentage 78% 50%
Away win % / Home win % 50% 60%