← Home / UEFA Nations League / Matchups / Poland vs Sweden
UEFA Nations League · League B · Group 4 · Round 6
Tue, Nov 17, 2026 Β· 7:45 PM GMT

Poland vs Sweden Prediction & Win Probability

Poland has a 37% chance to win, with a 31% chance of a draw.

Rating 1725 · World #35
Form: LWLDL
VS
Rating 1744 · World #29
Form: WDWWL
Model Probability
37%
32%
Draw 31%

Group Impact

Chance of finishing in each Group 4 position, depending on this result

πŸ‡΅πŸ‡± Poland

Scenario1st2nd3rd4th
As things stand<1%8%85%7%
Poland win <1%21%79%<1%
Draw <1%<1%91%9%
Sweden win <1%<1%86%14%

πŸ‡ΈπŸ‡ͺ Sweden

Scenario1st2nd3rd4th
As things stand80%18%1%<1%
Poland win 72%24%4%<1%
Draw 78%22%<1%<1%
Sweden win 93%7%<1%<1%

League B Β· Group 4

#Team P Pts Rating 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
1 Sweden 4 10 1744 80% 18% 1% <1%
2 Bosnia & Herzegovina 4 8 1634 19% 74% 6% <1%
3 Poland 4 4 1725 <1% 8% 85% 7%
4 Romania 4 0 1650 <1% <1% 7% 93%
Promoted to League A (1st) Promotion play-off (2nd) Relegation play-off (4th)

Form Coming Into This Game

Last 10 internationals in any competition
PolandStatSweden
5-2-3Won-Drawn-Lost6-2-2
2.0Avg goals scored2.0
1.2Avg goals conceded1.6
1725Rating1744
#35World rank#29

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings (all internationals since 2010)
PolandStatSweden
1Wins (4 meetings, 0 draws)3
1Last 4 meetings (0 draws)3
1.75Average goals2.25
Last meeting (Mon, Sep 28, 2026, Nations League): Sweden 3–1 Poland