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UEFA Nations League · League B · Group 4 · Round 6
Tue, Nov 17, 2026 Β· 7:45 PM GMT

Poland vs Sweden Prediction & Win Probability

Poland has a 41% chance to win, with a 30% chance of a draw.

Rating 1732 · World #33
Form: LWWDW
VS
Rating 1727 · World #36
Form: LDLWW
Model Probability
41%
29%
Draw 30%

Group Impact

Chance of finishing in each Group 4 position, depending on this result

πŸ‡΅πŸ‡± Poland

Scenario1st2nd3rd4th
As things stand36%29%22%13%
Poland win 55%27%13%5%
Draw 32%30%25%14%
Sweden win 15%31%31%23%

πŸ‡ΈπŸ‡ͺ Sweden

Scenario1st2nd3rd4th
As things stand35%30%22%13%
Poland win 19%33%29%19%
Draw 35%31%22%12%
Sweden win 57%26%12%5%

League B Β· Group 4

#Team P Pts Rating 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
– Poland 0 0 1732 36% 29% 22% 13%
– Sweden 0 0 1727 35% 30% 22% 13%
– Romania 0 0 1686 21% 27% 30% 22%
– Bosnia & Herzegovina 0 0 1608 7% 14% 27% 52%
Promoted to League A (1st) Promotion play-off (2nd) Relegation play-off (3rd) Relegated to League C (4th)

Form Coming Into This Game

Last 10 internationals in any competition
PolandStatSweden
6-2-2Won-Drawn-Lost3-2-5
1.8Avg goals scored1.5
1.1Avg goals conceded2.1
1732Rating1727
#33World rank#36

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings (all internationals since 2010)
PolandStatSweden
1Wins (3 meetings, 0 draws)2
1Last 3 meetings (0 draws)2
2.0Average goals2.0
Last meeting (Tue, Mar 31, 2026, World Cup qualifier): Sweden 3–2 Poland

Recent Results

πŸ‡΅πŸ‡± Poland

@ Sweden
Tue, Mar 31, 2026 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 33%
2–3
vs Albania
Thu, Mar 26, 2026 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 55%
2–1
@ Malta
Mon, Nov 17, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 82%
3–2
vs Netherlands
Fri, Nov 14, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 16%
1–1
@ Lithuania
Sun, Oct 12, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 75%
2–0

πŸ‡ΈπŸ‡ͺ Sweden

@ France
Tue, Jun 30, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 9%
0–3
@ Japan
Thu, Jun 25, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 21%
1–1
@ Netherlands
Sat, Jun 20, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 15%
1–5
vs Tunisia
Mon, Jun 15, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 42%
5–1
vs Poland
Tue, Mar 31, 2026 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 36%
3–2