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UEFA Nations League · League B · Group 4 · Round 3
Fri, Oct 2, 2026 Β· 7:45 PM BST

Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Sweden Prediction & Win Probability

Sweden has a 46% chance to win, with a 29% chance of a draw.

Rating 1608 · World #64
Form: LWLDD
VS
Rating 1727 · World #36
Form: LDLWW
Model Probability
25%
46%
Draw 29%

Group Impact

Chance of finishing in each Group 4 position, depending on this result

πŸ‡§πŸ‡¦ Bosnia & Herzegovina

Scenario1st2nd3rd4th
As things stand7%14%27%52%
Bosnia & Herzegovina win 17%23%32%28%
Draw 6%14%28%51%
Sweden win 3%9%23%66%

πŸ‡ΈπŸ‡ͺ Sweden

Scenario1st2nd3rd4th
As things stand35%30%22%13%
Bosnia & Herzegovina win 19%25%27%29%
Draw 31%31%23%14%
Sweden win 46%32%18%4%

League B Β· Group 4

#Team P Pts Rating 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
– Poland 0 0 1732 36% 29% 22% 13%
– Sweden 0 0 1727 35% 30% 22% 13%
– Romania 0 0 1686 21% 27% 30% 22%
– Bosnia & Herzegovina 0 0 1608 7% 14% 27% 52%
Promoted to League A (1st) Promotion play-off (2nd) Relegation play-off (3rd) Relegated to League C (4th)

Form Coming Into This Game

Last 10 internationals in any competition
Bosnia & HerzegovinaStatSweden
2-5-3Won-Drawn-Lost3-2-5
1.4Avg goals scored1.5
1.6Avg goals conceded2.1
1608Rating1727
#64World rank#36

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings (all internationals since 2010)
Bosnia & HerzegovinaStatSweden
0Wins (1 meeting, 0 draws)1
0Last 1 meeting (0 draws)1
2.0Average goals4.0
Last meeting (Sat, May 29, 2010, Friendly): Sweden 4–2 Bosnia & Herzegovina

Recent Results

πŸ‡§πŸ‡¦ Bosnia & Herzegovina

@ USA
Thu, Jul 2, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 14%
0–2
vs Qatar
Wed, Jun 24, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 37%
3–1
@ Switzerland
Thu, Jun 18, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 14%
1–4
@ Canada
Fri, Jun 12, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 21%
1–1
vs Italy
Tue, Mar 31, 2026 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 12%
1–1

πŸ‡ΈπŸ‡ͺ Sweden

@ France
Tue, Jun 30, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 9%
0–3
@ Japan
Thu, Jun 25, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 21%
1–1
@ Netherlands
Sat, Jun 20, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 15%
1–5
vs Tunisia
Mon, Jun 15, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 42%
5–1
vs Poland
Tue, Mar 31, 2026 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 36%
3–2