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Union Berlin vs Mainz Prediction & Win Probability

Union Berlin has a 38% chance to win.
Bundesliga
Fri, Apr 2, 2027 · 2:30 PM BST
Bundesliga
Union Berlin
1-4-3Rating 1690
Form: DDDWL
vs
Model Probability
38%
Draw 28%
34%
Bundesliga
Mainz
3-1-4Rating 1733
Form: LLWLW

Model Prediction Through Season

Season Impact

Mainz

Scenario Win LeagueChampions LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegationRelegation playoff
Now <1%2.4%2.5%10.7%2.4%
If Win <1%4.0%3.5%7.0%<1%
If Draw <1%1.8%2.3%11.6%1.9%
If Lose <1%1.3%2.3%13.7%2.8%

Union Berlin

Scenario Win LeagueChampions LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegationRelegation playoff
Now <1%<1%<1%27.7%11.6%
If Win <1%<1%<1%24.8%6.9%
If Draw <1%<1%<1%30.0%12.1%
If Lose <1%<1%<1%33.7%14.9%

Season Form Coming Into This Game

Union BerlinStatMainz
8Games played8
0.9Avg goals scored2.1
2.4Avg goals conceded2.1
12% / 50% / 38%Win / Draw / Loss38% / 12% / 50%
20% Home win % / Away win % 75%

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings
Union BerlinStatMainz
8All-time wins (14 meetings, 5 draws)1
2Last 5 meetings (3 draws)0
2.0Average goals1.0
Last meeting (2026-05-10): Mainz 1–3 Union Berlin