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Ligue 1
Sun, Mar 21, 2027 · 7:45 PM GMT

Marseille vs Lyon Prediction & Win Probability

Lyon has a 37% chance to win.

1-0-4 · Rating 1764
Form: LLLLW
VS
3-2-0 · Rating 1829
Form: WDWDW
Model Probability
35%
37%
Draw 28%

Model Prediction Through Season

Season Impact

Lyon

Scenario Win LeagueChampions LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegationRelegation playoff
Now 7.8%37.0%14.2%<1%<1%
If Win 9.7%45.1%14.5%<1%<1%
If Draw 6.9%36.7%14.4%<1%<1%
If Lose 5.2%30.4%13.5%<1%<1%

Marseille

Scenario Win LeagueChampions LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegationRelegation playoff
Now <1%3.1%3.0%12.1%3.8%
If Win <1%4.6%4.3%8.3%2.4%
If Draw <1%2.9%2.6%11.4%4.3%
If Lose <1%2.0%2.2%15.1%5.5%

Season Form Coming Into This Game

MarseilleStatLyon
5Games played5
1.4Avg goals scored2.0
1.6Avg goals conceded0.4
20% / 0% / 80%Win / Draw / Loss60% / 40% / 0%
33% Home win % / Away win % 50%

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings
MarseilleStatLyon
9All-time wins (32 meetings, 10 draws)13
3Last 5 meetings (0 draws)2
1.3Average goals1.6
Last meeting (2026-03-01): Marseille 3–2 Lyon