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Marseille vs Lyon Prediction & Win Probability

Marseille has a 43% chance to win.
Ligue 1
Sun, Mar 21, 2027 · 7:45 PM GMT
Ligue 1
Marseille
6-0-4Rating 1799
Form: WWWWW
vs
Model Probability
43%
Draw 28%
30%
Ligue 1
Lyon
5-2-3Rating 1811
Form: LWLWL

Model Prediction Through Season

Season Impact

Lyon

Scenario Win LeagueChampions LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegationRelegation playoff
Now <1%24.8%12.2%<1%<1%
If Win <1%34.6%14.1%<1%<1%
If Draw <1%25.4%11.3%<1%<1%
If Lose <1%19.1%10.3%<1%<1%

Marseille

Scenario Win LeagueChampions LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegationRelegation playoff
Now <1%28.8%13.6%<1%<1%
If Win <1%35.3%14.4%<1%<1%
If Draw <1%25.1%13.1%<1%<1%
If Lose <1%20.3%11.7%<1%<1%

Season Form Coming Into This Game

MarseilleStatLyon
10Games played10
2.2Avg goals scored1.5
1.4Avg goals conceded0.9
60% / 0% / 40%Win / Draw / Loss50% / 20% / 30%
60% Home win % / Away win % 20%

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings
MarseilleStatLyon
9All-time wins (32 meetings, 10 draws)13
3Last 5 meetings (0 draws)2
1.3Average goals1.6
Last meeting (2026-03-01): Marseille 3–2 Lyon