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Lorient vs Marseille Prediction & Win Probability

Lorient has a 39% chance to win.
Ligue 1
Sun, Jan 24, 2027 · 4:15 PM GMT
Ligue 1
Lorient
3-3-3Rating 1741
Form: LDWWL
vs
Model Probability
39%
Draw 28%
33%
Ligue 1
Marseille
5-0-4Rating 1780
Form: WWWWL

Model Prediction Through Season

Season Impact

Marseille

Scenario Win LeagueChampions LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegationRelegation playoff
Now <1%16.3%9.8%<1%<1%
If Win <1%22.3%12.0%<1%<1%
If Draw <1%16.2%10.6%1.1%<1%
If Lose <1%12.2%6.8%2.1%<1%

Lorient

Scenario Win LeagueChampions LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegationRelegation playoff
Now <1%2.6%2.6%8.6%1.7%
If Win <1%3.5%4.0%5.7%<1%
If Draw <1%1.5%2.0%9.6%1.6%
If Lose <1%1.3%1.0%13.4%3.0%

Season Form Coming Into This Game

LorientStatMarseille
9Games played9
0.8Avg goals scored2.2
0.9Avg goals conceded1.4
33% / 33% / 33%Win / Draw / Loss56% / 0% / 44%
40% Home win % / Away win % 50%

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings
LorientStatMarseille
4All-time wins (25 meetings, 6 draws)15
1Last 5 meetings (1 draws)3
1.1Average goals2.0
Last meeting (2026-04-18): Lorient 2–0 Marseille