Chiefs @ Raiders

NFL model probabilities, projected margin and matchup analysis
Final Score: Chiefs 30 - Raiders 27
Sunday, October 4, 2026 at 4:25 PM ET
Kansas City
Chiefs
3-0 Rating 1587
Form: LLWWW
30 – 27
Model Probability
64%
36%
Projected margin: Kansas City Chiefs +4.3
Las Vegas
Raiders
3-0 Rating 1400
Form: LWWWW

Model Prediction Through Season

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings
Stat Chiefs Raiders
All-time wins 65 45
Last 5 meetings 3 2
Average points 22.0 18.8
Last meeting 12 14

Key Season Stats

Stat Chiefs Raiders
Games played 3 3
Avg points scored 29.3 29.3
Avg points conceded 16.7 18.0
Win percentage 100% 100%
Away win % / Home win % 100% 100%