Final Score: Heat 112 - Thunder 124
Sunday, January 11, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET
Heat @ Thunder
NBA model probabilities, projected margin and matchup analysis
Model Prediction Through Season
| Stat | Heat | Thunder |
|---|---|---|
| All-time wins | 34 | 45 |
| Last 5 meetings | 1 | 4 |
| Average points | 97.8 | 101.7 |
| Last meeting | 101 | 115 |
| Stat | Heat | Thunder |
|---|---|---|
| Games played | 38 | 39 |
| Avg points scored | 119.6 | 121.3 |
| Avg points conceded | 117.6 | 108.3 |
| Win percentage | 53% | 82% |
| Away win % / Home win % | 37% | 86% |
Recent Results
Heat
@ Indiana Pacers
Jan 10, 2026 · Margin: -24 · Total: 222
99-123
@ Minnesota Timberwolves
Jan 6, 2026 · Margin: -28 · Total: 216
94-122
vs New Orleans Pelicans
Jan 4, 2026 · Margin: +19 · Total: 231
125-106
vs Minnesota Timberwolves
Jan 3, 2026 · Margin: -10 · Total: 240
115-125
@ Detroit Pistons
Jan 1, 2026 · Margin: +6 · Total: 230
118-112
vs Denver Nuggets
Dec 29, 2025 · Margin: +24 · Total: 270
147-123
vs Indiana Pacers
Dec 27, 2025 · Margin: +26 · Total: 258
142-116
@ Atlanta Hawks
Dec 26, 2025 · Margin: +15 · Total: 237
126-111
vs Toronto Raptors
Dec 23, 2025 · Margin: -21 · Total: 203
91-112
@ New York Knicks
Dec 21, 2025 · Margin: -7 · Total: 257
125-132
Thunder
@ Memphis Grizzlies
Jan 9, 2026 · Margin: +1 · Total: 233
117-116
vs Utah Jazz
Jan 7, 2026 · Margin: +4 · Total: 254
129-125
vs Charlotte Hornets
Jan 5, 2026 · Margin: -27 · Total: 221
97-124
@ Phoenix Suns
Jan 4, 2026 · Margin: -3 · Total: 213
105-108
@ Golden State Warriors
Jan 2, 2026 · Margin: +37 · Total: 225
131-94
vs Portland Trail Blazers
Dec 31, 2025 · Margin: +29 · Total: 219
124-95
vs Atlanta Hawks
Dec 29, 2025 · Margin: +11 · Total: 269
140-129
vs Philadelphia 76ers
Dec 28, 2025 · Margin: +25 · Total: 233
129-104
vs San Antonio Spurs
Dec 25, 2025 · Margin: -15 · Total: 219
102-117
@ San Antonio Spurs
Dec 23, 2025 · Margin: -20 · Total: 240
110-130