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UEFA Nations League · League C · Group 1 · Round 6
Sun, Nov 15, 2026 ยท 5:00 PM GMT

Finland vs San Marino Prediction & Win Probability

Finland has a 94% chance to win, with a 4% chance of a draw.

Rating 1595 · World #72
Form: DWLLW
VS
Rating 1055 · World #220
Form: LLLLL
Model Probability
94%
2%
Draw 4%

Group Impact

Chance of finishing in each Group 1 position, depending on this result

๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ฎ Finland

Scenario1st2nd3rd4th
As things stand40%40%21%<1%
Finland win 41%40%20%<1%
Draw 25%45%29%<1%
San Marino win 19%38%38%5%

๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฒ San Marino

Scenario1st2nd3rd4th
As things stand<1%<1%2%98%
Finland win <1%<1%2%98%
Draw <1%<1%2%98%
San Marino win <1%2%8%90%

League C ยท Group 1

#Team P Pts Rating 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
– Albania 0 0 1624 49% 35% 15% <1%
– Finland 0 0 1595 40% 40% 21% <1%
– Belarus 0 0 1478 11% 25% 62% 2%
– San Marino 0 0 1055 <1% <1% 2% 98%
Promoted to League B (1st) Promotion play-off (2nd) Ranking of 4th-placed teams (4th) Relegation play-off Relegated to League D

Form Coming Into This Game

Last 10 internationals in any competition
FinlandStatSan Marino
4-2-4Won-Drawn-Lost1-1-8
1.1Avg goals scored0.6
1.5Avg goals conceded4.1
1595Rating1055
#72World rank#220

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings (all internationals since 2010)
FinlandStatSan Marino
4Wins (4 meetings, 0 draws)0
4Last 4 meetings (0 draws)0
4.25Average goals0.25
Last meeting (Mon, Nov 20, 2023, Euro): San Marino 1–2 Finland

Recent Results

๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ฎ Finland

@ Cape Verde
Mon, Mar 30, 2026 · Fifa Series · Pre-match win chance 34%
1–1
@ New Zealand
Fri, Mar 27, 2026 · Fifa Series · Pre-match win chance 27%
2–0
vs Malta
Fri, Nov 14, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 78%
0–1
@ Netherlands
Sun, Oct 12, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 6%
0–4
vs Lithuania
Thu, Oct 9, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 70%
2–1

๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฒ San Marino

@ Romania
Tue, Nov 18, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 1%
1–7
vs Cyprus
Sun, Oct 12, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 10%
0–4
@ Austria
Thu, Oct 9, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 1%
0–10
vs Bosnia & Herzegovina
Sat, Sep 6, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 3%
0–6
vs Austria
Tue, Jun 10, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 1%
0–4