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UEFA Nations League · League C · Group 1 · Round 5
Thu, Nov 12, 2026 ยท 7:45 PM GMT

San Marino vs Belarus Prediction & Win Probability

Belarus has a 84% chance to win, with a 11% chance of a draw.

Rating 1049 · World #219
Form: LLLLL
VS
Rating 1486 · World #100
Form: WWDLD
Model Probability
5%
84%
Draw 11%

Group Impact

Chance of finishing in each Group 1 position, depending on this result

๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฒ San Marino

Scenario1st2nd3rd4th
As things stand<1%<1%<1%100%
San Marino win <1%<1%<1%100%
Draw <1%<1%<1%100%
Belarus win <1%<1%<1%100%

๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡พ Belarus

Scenario1st2nd3rd4th
As things stand22%42%36%<1%
San Marino win <1%22%78%<1%
Draw 7%21%73%<1%
Belarus win 26%46%28%<1%

League C ยท Group 1

#Team P Pts Rating 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
1 Albania 4 9 1624 54% 26% 21% <1%
2 Belarus 4 7 1486 22% 42% 36% <1%
3 Finland 4 7 1591 24% 32% 44% <1%
4 San Marino 4 0 1049 <1% <1% <1% 100%
Promoted to League B (1st) Promotion play-off (2nd)

Form Coming Into This Game

Last 10 internationals in any competition
San MarinoStatBelarus
0-0-10Won-Drawn-Lost2-3-5
0.2Avg goals scored0.9
4.8Avg goals conceded1.9
1049Rating1486
#219World rank#100

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings (all internationals since 2010)
San MarinoStatBelarus
0Wins (3 meetings, 0 draws)3
0Last 3 meetings (0 draws)3
0.0Average goals3.67
Last meeting (Sat, Oct 3, 2026, Nations League): Belarus 4–0 San Marino