โ† Home / UEFA Nations League / Matchups / Finland vs Belarus
UEFA Nations League · League C · Group 1 · Round 2
Tue, Sep 29, 2026 ยท 5:00 PM BST

Finland vs Belarus Prediction & Win Probability

Finland has a 57% chance to win, with a 26% chance of a draw.

Rating 1595 · World #73
Form: DWLLW
VS
Rating 1478 · World #99
Form: DDLLL
Model Probability
57%
18%
Draw 26%

Group Impact

Chance of finishing in each Group 1 position, depending on this result

๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ฎ Finland

Scenario1st2nd3rd4th
As things stand39%40%20%<1%
Finland win 50%42%8%<1%
Draw 30%43%27%<1%
Belarus win 17%31%52%<1%

๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡พ Belarus

Scenario1st2nd3rd4th
As things stand11%24%63%2%
Finland win 4%17%76%2%
Draw 12%30%57%1%
Belarus win 29%42%29%<1%

League C ยท Group 1

#Team P Pts Rating 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Albania 0 0 1624 50% 35% 14% <1%
Finland 0 0 1595 39% 40% 20% <1%
Belarus 0 0 1478 11% 24% 63% 2%
San Marino 0 0 1055 <1% <1% 2% 98%
Promoted to League B (1st) Promotion play-off (2nd) Ranking of 4th-placed teams (4th) Relegation play-off Relegated to League D

Form Coming Into This Game

Last 10 internationals in any competition
FinlandStatBelarus
4-2-4Won-Drawn-Lost0-5-5
1.1Avg goals scored0.6
1.5Avg goals conceded2.1
1595Rating1478
#73World rank#99

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings (all internationals since 2010)
FinlandStatBelarus
2Wins (3 meetings, 1 draw)0
2Last 3 meetings (1 draw)0
1.33Average goals0.33
Last meeting (Sat, Jun 9, 2018, Friendly): Finland 2–0 Belarus

Recent Results

๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ฎ Finland

@ Cape Verde
Mon, Mar 30, 2026 · Fifa Series · Pre-match win chance 34%
1–1
@ New Zealand
Fri, Mar 27, 2026 · Fifa Series · Pre-match win chance 27%
2–0
vs Malta
Fri, Nov 14, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 78%
0–1
@ Netherlands
Sun, Oct 12, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 6%
0–4
vs Lithuania
Thu, Oct 9, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 70%
2–1

๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡พ Belarus

vs Greece
Tue, Nov 18, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 13%
0–0
@ Denmark
Sat, Nov 15, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 4%
2–2
@ Scotland
Sun, Oct 12, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 8%
1–2
vs Denmark
Thu, Oct 9, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 8%
0–6
vs Scotland
Mon, Sep 8, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 14%
0–2