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UEFA Nations League · League B · Group 2 · Round 5
Sat, Nov 14, 2026 Β· 7:45 PM GMT

Northern Ireland vs Ukraine Prediction & Win Probability

Ukraine has a 43% chance to win, with a 30% chance of a draw.

Rating 1631 · World #61
Form: DWDWL
VS
Rating 1729 · World #32
Form: LLDWL
Model Probability
27%
43%
Draw 30%

Group Impact

Chance of finishing in each Group 2 position, depending on this result

πŸ‡¬πŸ‡§ Northern Ireland

Scenario1st2nd3rd4th
As things stand38%42%20%<1%
Northern Ireland win 61%39%<1%<1%
Draw 36%64%<1%<1%
Ukraine win 24%29%46%<1%

πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ Ukraine

Scenario1st2nd3rd4th
As things stand6%24%55%16%
Northern Ireland win <1%2%72%26%
Draw <1%6%71%22%
Ukraine win 13%50%32%5%

League B Β· Group 2

#Team P Pts Rating 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
1 Northern Ireland 4 8 1631 38% 42% 20% <1%
2 Hungary 4 7 1723 56% 32% 11% <1%
3 Ukraine 4 4 1729 6% 24% 55% 16%
4 Georgia 4 2 1627 <1% 2% 14% 84%
Promoted to League A (1st) Promotion play-off (2nd) Relegation play-off (4th)

Form Coming Into This Game

Last 10 internationals in any competition
Northern IrelandStatUkraine
4-2-4Won-Drawn-Lost4-2-4
0.8Avg goals scored1.3
0.7Avg goals conceded1.7
1631Rating1729
#61World rank#32

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings (all internationals since 2010)
Northern IrelandStatUkraine
2Wins (3 meetings, 0 draws)1
2Last 3 meetings (0 draws)1
1.67Average goals0.33
Last meeting (Fri, Oct 2, 2026, Nations League): Ukraine 0–3 Northern Ireland