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Sun, May 2, 2027 · 4:00 PM BST

Atl. Madrid vs Alaves Prediction & Win Probability

Atl. Madrid has a 58% chance to win.

5-1-1 · Rating 1949
Form: WWWLW
VS
3-2-2 · Rating 1854
Form: DLLWW
Model Probability
58%
19%
Draw 23%

Model Prediction Through Season

Season Impact

Alaves

Scenario Win LeagueChampions LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
Now <1%23.1%9.8%3.9%
If Win <1%31.5%11.1%1.9%
If Draw <1%23.7%10.0%2.7%
If Lose <1%20.9%10.8%3.6%

Atl. Madrid

Scenario Win LeagueChampions LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
Now 3.8%86.0%4.4%<1%
If Win 4.9%89.1%3.8%<1%
If Draw 3.4%84.2%5.3%<1%
If Lose 2.5%80.5%6.6%<1%

Season Form Coming Into This Game

Atl. MadridStatAlaves
7Games played7
2.3Avg goals scored1.6
1.0Avg goals conceded0.9
71% / 14% / 14%Win / Draw / Loss43% / 29% / 29%
75% Home win % / Away win % 0%

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings
Atl. MadridStatAlaves
11All-time wins (18 meetings, 5 draws)2
2Last 5 meetings (2 draws)1
1.4Average goals0.6
Last meeting (2026-01-18): Atl. Madrid 1–0 Alaves