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Toulouse vs Marseille Prediction & Win Probability

Toulouse has a 38% chance to win.
Ligue 1
Sat, May 1, 2027 · 4:00 PM BST
Ligue 1
Toulouse
3-4-3Rating 1756
Form: WLDWD
vs
Model Probability
38%
Draw 28%
34%
Ligue 1
Marseille
6-0-4Rating 1799
Form: WWWWW

Model Prediction Through Season

Season Impact

Marseille

Scenario Win LeagueChampions LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegationRelegation playoff
Now <1%30.6%11.3%<1%<1%
If Win <1%35.8%12.9%<1%<1%
If Draw <1%29.6%12.7%<1%<1%
If Lose <1%22.4%11.7%<1%<1%

Toulouse

Scenario Win LeagueChampions LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegationRelegation playoff
Now <1%3.0%3.2%5.4%<1%
If Win <1%4.4%4.1%3.8%<1%
If Draw <1%2.7%3.3%6.3%<1%
If Lose <1%1.8%1.8%8.4%1.2%

Season Form Coming Into This Game

ToulouseStatMarseille
10Games played10
1.5Avg goals scored2.2
1.4Avg goals conceded1.4
30% / 40% / 30%Win / Draw / Loss60% / 0% / 40%
40% Home win % / Away win % 60%

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings
ToulouseStatMarseille
1All-time wins (30 meetings, 12 draws)17
0Last 5 meetings (1 draws)4
0.8Average goals1.9
Last meeting (2026-11-01): Marseille 2–0 Toulouse