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Ligue 1
Sat, May 1, 2027 · 4:00 PM BST

Toulouse vs Marseille Prediction & Win Probability

Toulouse has a 41% chance to win.

1-2-2 · Rating 1740
Form: WDLDL
VS
1-0-4 · Rating 1764
Form: LLLLW
Model Probability
41%
31%
Draw 28%

Model Prediction Through Season

Season Impact

Marseille

Scenario Win LeagueChampions LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegationRelegation playoff
Now <1%2.7%2.8%11.2%4.7%
If Win <1%3.8%3.8%8.3%2.1%
If Draw <1%2.4%2.8%11.8%4.0%
If Lose <1%2.3%2.1%12.6%4.7%

Toulouse

Scenario Win LeagueChampions LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegationRelegation playoff
Now <1%1.5%2.0%15.4%5.8%
If Win <1%2.7%3.0%12.3%4.2%
If Draw <1%1.6%2.2%15.7%6.1%
If Lose <1%1.0%1.4%18.3%7.9%

Season Form Coming Into This Game

ToulouseStatMarseille
5Games played5
1.4Avg goals scored1.4
1.8Avg goals conceded1.6
20% / 40% / 40%Win / Draw / Loss20% / 0% / 80%
33% Home win % / Away win % 0%

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings
ToulouseStatMarseille
1All-time wins (29 meetings, 12 draws)16
0Last 5 meetings (2 draws)3
0.8Average goals1.9
Last meeting (2026-03-07): Toulouse 0–1 Marseille