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Ligue 1
Sat, Oct 10, 2026 · 7:45 PM BST

Monaco vs Toulouse Prediction & Win Probability

Monaco has a 59% chance to win.

4-1-0 · Rating 1840
Form: WDWWW
VS
1-2-2 · Rating 1740
Form: WDLDL
Model Probability
59%
18%
Draw 23%

Model Prediction Through Season

Season Impact

Toulouse

Scenario Win LeagueChampions LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegationRelegation playoff
Now <1%2.1%2.4%15.8%5.8%
If Win <1%4.4%3.7%8.4%2.6%
If Draw <1%2.6%1.9%13.6%5.5%
If Lose <1%1.3%1.2%16.8%7.7%

Monaco

Scenario Win LeagueChampions LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegationRelegation playoff
Now 17.2%59.6%11.5%<1%<1%
If Win 19.5%63.3%11.8%<1%<1%
If Draw 14.4%52.5%13.1%<1%<1%
If Lose 9.2%43.9%13.9%<1%<1%

Season Form Coming Into This Game

MonacoStatToulouse
5Games played5
1.6Avg goals scored1.4
0.6Avg goals conceded1.8
80% / 20% / 0%Win / Draw / Loss20% / 40% / 40%
100% Home win % / Away win % 0%

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings
MonacoStatToulouse
12All-time wins (24 meetings, 8 draws)4
2Last 5 meetings (2 draws)1
1.7Average goals1.0
Last meeting (2026-04-25): Toulouse 2–2 Monaco