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Bristol City vs Derby Prediction & Win Probability

Bristol City has a 47% chance to win.
Championship
Sat, Apr 24, 2027 · 3:00 PM BST
Championship
Bristol City
5-3-7Rating 1613
Form: LLWDL
vs
Model Probability
47%
Draw 27%
26%
Championship
Derby
2-4-9Rating 1591
Form: WLLDL

Model Prediction Through Season

Season Impact

Derby

Scenario Win LeagueAutomatic promotionPromotion playoffRelegation
Now <1%<1%<1%54.6%
If Win <1%<1%<1%46.3%
If Draw <1%<1%<1%54.8%
If Lose <1%<1%<1%59.6%

Bristol City

Scenario Win LeagueAutomatic promotionPromotion playoffRelegation
Now <1%<1%5.0%14.6%
If Win <1%<1%6.6%10.2%
If Draw <1%<1%5.0%13.8%
If Lose <1%<1%3.4%18.8%

Season Form Coming Into This Game

Bristol CityStatDerby
15Games played15
1.1Avg goals scored0.9
1.6Avg goals conceded2.0
33% / 20% / 47%Win / Draw / Loss13% / 27% / 60%
25% Home win % / Away win % 14%

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings
Bristol CityStatDerby
10All-time wins (25 meetings, 6 draws)9
2Last 5 meetings (1 draws)2
1.2Average goals1.5
Last meeting (2026-01-30): Bristol City 0–5 Derby