Reds @ Blue Jays

MLB model probabilities, projected margin and matchup analysis
Final Score: Reds 5 - Blue Jays 1
Saturday, September 26, 2026 at 3:07 PM ET
Cincinnati
Reds
74-86 Rating 1484
Form: LWLWL
5 – 1
Model Probability
42%
58%
Projected margin: Toronto Blue Jays +0.5
Toronto
Blue Jays
78-82 Rating 1516
Form: WLLLW

Model Prediction Through Season

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings
Stat Reds Blue Jays
All-time wins 11 20
Last 5 meetings 2 3
Average runs 4.2 6.4
Last meeting 5 6

Key Season Stats

Stat Reds Blue Jays
Games played 160 160
Avg runs scored 4.1 4.0
Avg runs conceded 5.1 4.3
Win percentage 46% 49%
Away win % / Home win % 46% 52%