Blue Jays @ Orioles

MLB model probabilities, projected margin and matchup analysis
Final Score: Blue Jays 3 - Orioles 4
Monday, September 21, 2026 at 6:35 PM ET
Toronto
Blue Jays
77-79 Rating 1520
Form: LWLLW
3 – 4
Model Probability
49%
51%
Projected margin: Toronto Blue Jays +0.0
Baltimore
Orioles
75-81 Rating 1495
Form: WWLLL

Model Prediction Through Season

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings
Stat Blue Jays Orioles
All-time wins 407 348
Last 5 meetings 4 1
Average runs 4.7 4.5
Last meeting 8 1

Key Season Stats

Stat Blue Jays Orioles
Games played 156 156
Avg runs scored 4.0 4.4
Avg runs conceded 4.3 4.6
Win percentage 49% 48%
Away win % / Home win % 47% 46%