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Dortmund vs Bayern Munich Prediction & Win Probability

Bayern Munich has a 46% chance to win.
Bundesliga
Fri, Mar 5, 2027 · 2:30 PM GMT
Bundesliga
Dortmund
5-3-0Rating 1916
Form: DWDDW
vs
Model Probability
27%
Draw 27%
46%
Bundesliga
Bayern Munich
5-3-0Rating 2051
Form: DWWDW

Model Prediction Through Season

Season Impact

Bayern Munich

Scenario Win LeagueChampions LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegationRelegation playoff
Now 85.4%99.9%<1%<1%<1%
If Win 91.4%99.9%<1%<1%<1%
If Draw 85.2%99.7%<1%<1%<1%
If Lose 74.7%99.8%<1%<1%<1%

Dortmund

Scenario Win LeagueChampions LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegationRelegation playoff
Now 11.4%92.7%3.6%<1%<1%
If Win 21.0%95.2%2.7%<1%<1%
If Draw 11.5%92.2%4.0%<1%<1%
If Lose 6.2%89.6%5.1%<1%<1%

Season Form Coming Into This Game

DortmundStatBayern Munich
8Games played8
1.8Avg goals scored3.4
0.8Avg goals conceded1.0
62% / 38% / 0%Win / Draw / Loss62% / 38% / 0%
75% Home win % / Away win % 50%

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings
DortmundStatBayern Munich
8All-time wins (34 meetings, 7 draws)19
0Last 5 meetings (3 draws)2
1.2Average goals2.2
Last meeting (2026-10-31): Bayern Munich 2–2 Dortmund