Lightning @ Senators

NHL model probabilities, projected margin and matchup analysis
Final Score: Lightning 0 - Senators 0
Saturday, December 5, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET
Tampa Bay
Lightning
11-5 Rating 1554
Form: WLWWW
@
Model Probability
52%
48%
Projected margin: Ottawa Senators +0.1
Ottawa
Senators
11-7 Rating 1523
Form: LWLWW

Model Prediction Through Season

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings
Stat Lightning Senators
All-time wins 54 72
Last 5 meetings 2 3
Average goals 2.9 3.5
Last meeting 2 6

Key Season Stats

Stat Lightning Senators
Games played 16 18
Avg goals scored 3.8 3.2
Avg goals conceded 3.1 3.0
Win percentage 69% 61%
Away win % / Home win % 38% 75%