Final Score: Marlins 6 - Phillies 5
Tuesday, September 23, 2025 at 6:45 PM ET

Marlins @ Phillies

MLB model probabilities, projected margin and matchup analysis
Marlins
76-80 Rating 1480
Form: WWWWW
Model Probability
36%
64%
Projected margin: Philadelphia Phillies +1.1
Phillies
92-64 Rating 1562
Form: WLWLL

Model Prediction Through Season

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings
Stat Marlins Phillies
All-time wins 245 295
Last 5 meetings 1 4
Average runs 4.3 4.9
Last meeting 5 4

Key Season Stats

Stat Marlins Phillies
Games played 156 156
Avg runs scored 4.4 4.8
Avg runs conceded 5.0 4.1
Win percentage 49% 59%
Away win % / Home win % 51% 68%