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Freiburg vs Mainz Prediction & Win Probability

Freiburg has a 57% chance to win.
Bundesliga
Fri, Apr 16, 2027 · 2:30 PM BST
Bundesliga
Freiburg
5-1-2Rating 1819
Form: WLLWD
vs
Model Probability
57%
Draw 24%
20%
Bundesliga
Mainz
3-1-4Rating 1733
Form: LLWLW

Model Prediction Through Season

Season Impact

Mainz

Scenario Win LeagueChampions LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegationRelegation playoff
Now <1%2.9%3.0%11.3%2.2%
If Win <1%4.2%4.4%6.4%1.0%
If Draw <1%2.6%3.1%9.6%1.8%
If Lose <1%1.4%2.2%12.9%2.6%

Freiburg

Scenario Win LeagueChampions LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegationRelegation playoff
Now <1%47.4%15.1%<1%<1%
If Win <1%54.2%14.4%<1%<1%
If Draw <1%44.7%15.2%<1%<1%
If Lose <1%39.6%15.4%<1%<1%

Season Form Coming Into This Game

FreiburgStatMainz
8Games played8
2.2Avg goals scored2.1
1.2Avg goals conceded2.1
62% / 12% / 25%Win / Draw / Loss38% / 12% / 50%
75% Home win % / Away win % 75%

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings
FreiburgStatMainz
10All-time wins (31 meetings, 10 draws)11
2Last 5 meetings (3 draws)0
1.2Average goals1.4
Last meeting (2026-04-12): Mainz 0–1 Freiburg