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Mainz vs Hamburger SV Prediction & Win Probability

Mainz has a 51% chance to win.
Bundesliga
Fri, Jan 29, 2027 · 2:30 PM GMT
Bundesliga
Mainz
3-1-4Rating 1733
Form: LLWLW
vs
Model Probability
51%
Draw 26%
23%
Bundesliga
Hamburger SV
4-0-5Rating 1687
Form: WLLWW

Model Prediction Through Season

Season Impact

Hamburger SV

Scenario Win LeagueChampions LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegationRelegation playoff
Now <1%1.0%1.4%16.6%3.8%
If Win <1%2.3%2.6%11.3%1.8%
If Draw <1%1.2%1.4%15.8%2.5%
If Lose <1%<1%1.2%20.9%5.3%

Mainz

Scenario Win LeagueChampions LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegationRelegation playoff
Now <1%2.7%2.5%10.6%2.1%
If Win <1%3.6%3.5%7.4%<1%
If Draw <1%2.0%2.3%12.9%2.5%
If Lose <1%1.2%1.5%16.3%4.4%

Season Form Coming Into This Game

MainzStatHamburger SV
8Games played9
2.1Avg goals scored1.1
2.1Avg goals conceded2.2
38% / 12% / 50%Win / Draw / Loss44% / 0% / 56%
0% Home win % / Away win % 20%

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings
MainzStatHamburger SV
8All-time wins (20 meetings, 6 draws)6
2Last 5 meetings (2 draws)1
1.4Average goals1.1
Last meeting (2026-09-06): Hamburger SV 0–5 Mainz