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RB Leipzig vs Dortmund Prediction & Win Probability

Dortmund has a 39% chance to win.
Bundesliga
Sat, Dec 19, 2026 · 5:30 PM GMT
Bundesliga
RB Leipzig
6-0-3Rating 1838
Form: WWWLW
vs
Model Probability
33%
Draw 28%
39%
Bundesliga
Dortmund
6-3-0Rating 1918
Form: WDWDD

Model Prediction Through Season

Season Impact

Dortmund

Scenario Win LeagueChampions LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegationRelegation playoff
Now 10.8%92.2%4.1%<1%<1%
If Win 16.9%96.0%2.2%<1%<1%
If Draw 10.5%92.4%4.1%<1%<1%
If Lose 7.2%88.1%6.6%<1%<1%

RB Leipzig

Scenario Win LeagueChampions LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegationRelegation playoff
Now 1.2%52.1%16.5%<1%<1%
If Win 1.5%65.9%14.1%<1%<1%
If Draw <1%53.5%15.6%<1%<1%
If Lose <1%46.0%16.7%<1%<1%

Season Form Coming Into This Game

RB LeipzigStatDortmund
9Games played9
3.0Avg goals scored1.8
1.4Avg goals conceded0.8
67% / 0% / 33%Win / Draw / Loss67% / 33% / 0%
100% Home win % / Away win % 50%

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings
RB LeipzigStatDortmund
8All-time wins (20 meetings, 4 draws)8
2Last 5 meetings (2 draws)1
1.8Average goals1.6
Last meeting (2026-02-21): RB Leipzig 2–2 Dortmund