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Mainz vs Freiburg Prediction & Win Probability

Freiburg has a 40% chance to win.
Bundesliga
Sun, Dec 13, 2026 · 2:30 PM GMT
Bundesliga
Mainz
3-1-4Rating 1733
Form: LLWLW
vs
Model Probability
33%
Draw 28%
40%
Bundesliga
Freiburg
5-1-2Rating 1819
Form: WLLWD

Model Prediction Through Season

Season Impact

Freiburg

Scenario Win LeagueChampions LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegationRelegation playoff
Now 1.2%48.8%13.6%<1%<1%
If Win 1.8%59.8%12.8%<1%<1%
If Draw <1%46.9%15.3%<1%<1%
If Lose <1%38.2%15.4%<1%<1%

Mainz

Scenario Win LeagueChampions LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegationRelegation playoff
Now <1%2.9%3.3%11.3%1.9%
If Win <1%4.6%4.8%6.1%<1%
If Draw <1%2.5%2.2%10.7%2.1%
If Lose <1%1.3%1.8%15.0%3.2%

Season Form Coming Into This Game

MainzStatFreiburg
8Games played8
2.1Avg goals scored2.2
2.1Avg goals conceded1.2
38% / 12% / 50%Win / Draw / Loss62% / 12% / 25%
0% Home win % / Away win % 50%

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings
MainzStatFreiburg
11All-time wins (31 meetings, 10 draws)10
0Last 5 meetings (3 draws)2
1.4Average goals1.2
Last meeting (2026-04-12): Mainz 0–1 Freiburg