Astros @ Mariners

MLB model probabilities, projected margin and matchup analysis
Final Score: Astros 5 - Mariners 6
Wednesday, September 23, 2026 at 10:10 PM ET
Houston
Astros
78-79 Rating 1509
Form: WLLLW
5 – 6
Model Probability
48%
52%
Projected margin: Seattle Mariners +0.1
Seattle
Mariners
73-84 Rating 1495
Form: WWLWL

Model Prediction Through Season

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings
Stat Astros Mariners
All-time wins 138 106
Last 5 meetings 2 3
Average runs 4.6 4.0
Last meeting 7 0

Key Season Stats

Stat Astros Mariners
Games played 157 157
Avg runs scored 4.4 4.0
Avg runs conceded 4.8 4.4
Win percentage 50% 46%
Away win % / Home win % 51% 53%