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UEFA Nations League · League A · Group 3 · Round 2
Tue, Sep 29, 2026 ยท 7:45 PM BST

Spain vs Croatia Prediction & Win Probability

Spain has a 71% chance to win, with a 19% chance of a draw.

Rating 2079 · World #1
Form: DWWWW
VS
Rating 1855 · World #15
Form: LWWLW
Model Probability
71%
10%
Draw 19%

Group Impact

Chance of finishing in each Group 3 position, depending on this result

๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ Spain

Scenario1st2nd3rd4th
As things stand65%28%6%<1%
Spain win 72%26%3%<1%
Draw 54%34%11%1%
Croatia win 42%31%25%3%

๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡ท Croatia

Scenario1st2nd3rd4th
As things stand5%19%59%17%
Spain win 2%16%62%20%
Draw 7%24%57%12%
Croatia win 20%34%40%6%

League A ยท Group 3

#Team P Pts Rating 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
– Spain 0 0 2079 65% 28% 6% <1%
– England 0 0 1996 30% 50% 17% 3%
– Croatia 0 0 1855 5% 19% 59% 17%
– Czech Republic 0 0 1693 <1% 2% 18% 80%
Quarter-finals (1st, 2nd) Relegation play-off (3rd) Relegated to League B (4th)

Form Coming Into This Game

Last 10 internationals in any competition
SpainStatCroatia
7-3-0Won-Drawn-Lost7-1-2
1.9Avg goals scored2.0
0.3Avg goals conceded1.0
2079Rating1855
#1World rank#15

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings (all internationals since 2010)
SpainStatCroatia
3Wins (7 meetings, 2 draws)2
2Last 5 meetings (2 draws)1
2.29Average goals1.14
Last meeting (Sat, Jun 15, 2024, Euro): Spain 3–0 Croatia

Recent Results

๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ Spain

vs Argentina
Sun, Jul 19, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 43%
0–0
@ France
Tue, Jul 14, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 36%
2–0
vs Belgium
Fri, Jul 10, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 57%
2–1
@ Portugal
Mon, Jul 6, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 48%
1–0
vs Austria
Thu, Jul 2, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 68%
3–0

๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡ท Croatia

@ Portugal
Thu, Jul 2, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 25%
1–2
vs Ghana
Sat, Jun 27, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 69%
2–1
@ Panama
Tue, Jun 23, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 55%
1–0
@ England
Wed, Jun 17, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 22%
2–4
@ Montenegro
Mon, Nov 17, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 75%
3–2