Final Score: Marlins 3 - Rays 6
Sunday, May 17, 2026 at 12:15 PM ET

Marlins @ Rays

MLB model probabilities, projected margin and matchup analysis
Marlins
21-25 Rating 1478
Form: LWLLW
Model Probability
41%
59%
Projected margin: Tampa Bay Rays +0.7
Rays
29-15 Rating 1524
Form: WWLWL

Model Prediction Through Season

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings
Stat Marlins Rays
All-time wins 64 85
Last 5 meetings 2 3
Average runs 4.3 4.7
Last meeting 10 5

Key Season Stats

Stat Marlins Rays
Games played 46 44
Avg runs scored 4.3 4.6
Avg runs conceded 4.5 4.1
Win percentage 46% 66%
Away win % / Home win % 35% 75%