Final Score: Marlins 2 - Rays 7
Friday, May 15, 2026 at 7:10 PM ET

Marlins @ Rays

MLB model probabilities, projected margin and matchup analysis
Marlins
20-24 Rating 1477
Form: WWLWL
Model Probability
40%
60%
Projected margin: Tampa Bay Rays +0.8
Rays
28-14 Rating 1525
Form: LWWWL

Model Prediction Through Season

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings
Stat Marlins Rays
All-time wins 63 84
Last 5 meetings 2 3
Average runs 4.3 4.7
Last meeting 2 3

Key Season Stats

Stat Marlins Rays
Games played 44 42
Avg runs scored 4.2 4.5
Avg runs conceded 4.5 4.0
Win percentage 45% 67%
Away win % / Home win % 33% 78%