Final Score: Yankees 5 - Mets 6
Friday, July 4, 2025 at 3:10 PM ET

Yankees @ Mets

MLB model probabilities, projected margin and matchup analysis
Yankees
48-39 Rating 1539
Form: WLLLL
Model Probability
47%
53%
Projected margin: New York Mets +0.2
Mets
50-38 Rating 1535
Form: LLLWW

Model Prediction Through Season

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings
Stat Yankees Mets
All-time wins 86 68
Last 5 meetings 2 3
Average runs 4.7 4.5
Last meeting 8 2

Key Season Stats

Stat Yankees Mets
Games played 87 88
Avg runs scored 5.1 4.3
Avg runs conceded 4.0 3.9
Win percentage 55% 57%
Away win % / Home win % 50% 70%