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Union Berlin vs Hamburger SV Prediction & Win Probability

Union Berlin has a 44% chance to win.
Bundesliga
Sat, Dec 5, 2026 · 2:30 PM GMT
Bundesliga
Union Berlin
1-4-4Rating 1685
Form: LDDDW
vs
Model Probability
44%
Draw 27%
29%
Bundesliga
Hamburger SV
4-0-5Rating 1687
Form: WLLWW

Model Prediction Through Season

Season Impact

Hamburger SV

Scenario Win LeagueChampions LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegationRelegation playoff
Now <1%<1%1.1%15.6%3.3%
If Win <1%1.9%2.8%8.2%1.1%
If Draw <1%<1%1.2%14.9%3.1%
If Lose <1%<1%1.0%19.4%4.8%

Union Berlin

Scenario Win LeagueChampions LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegationRelegation playoff
Now <1%<1%<1%31.1%12.6%
If Win <1%<1%<1%25.8%7.6%
If Draw <1%<1%<1%32.1%13.1%
If Lose <1%<1%<1%36.2%19.3%

Season Form Coming Into This Game

Union BerlinStatHamburger SV
9Games played9
0.8Avg goals scored1.1
2.3Avg goals conceded2.2
11% / 44% / 44%Win / Draw / Loss44% / 0% / 56%
20% Home win % / Away win % 20%

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings
Union BerlinStatHamburger SV
0All-time wins (2 meetings, 1 draws)1
0Last 2 meetings (1 draws)1
1.0Average goals1.5
Last meeting (2026-02-14): Hamburger SV 3–2 Union Berlin