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Ligue 1
Sat, Jan 16, 2027 · 4:00 PM GMT

Marseille vs Lille Prediction & Win Probability

Marseille has a 37% chance to win.

1-0-4 · Rating 1764
Form: LLLLW
VS
3-1-1 · Rating 1814
Form: LWWDW
Model Probability
37%
35%
Draw 28%

Model Prediction Through Season

Season Impact

Lille

Scenario Win LeagueChampions LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegationRelegation playoff
Now 5.3%28.6%12.3%1.0%<1%
If Win 6.1%36.2%15.1%<1%<1%
If Draw 4.6%27.2%13.3%<1%<1%
If Lose 2.3%21.4%11.9%1.5%<1%

Marseille

Scenario Win LeagueChampions LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegationRelegation playoff
Now <1%3.6%3.2%11.5%4.1%
If Win <1%4.7%4.4%7.6%2.3%
If Draw <1%2.1%2.6%11.2%3.8%
If Lose <1%1.6%1.4%13.5%5.2%

Season Form Coming Into This Game

MarseilleStatLille
5Games played5
1.4Avg goals scored1.6
1.6Avg goals conceded0.8
20% / 0% / 80%Win / Draw / Loss60% / 20% / 20%
33% Home win % / Away win % 67%

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings
MarseilleStatLille
12All-time wins (33 meetings, 9 draws)12
0Last 5 meetings (2 draws)3
1.3Average goals1.2
Last meeting (2026-03-22): Marseille 1–2 Lille