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Aston Villa vs Chelsea Prediction & Win Probability

Aston Villa has a 41% chance to win.
Final Score: Aston Villa 1–4 Chelsea
Wed, Mar 4, 2026 · 7:30 PM GMT
League One
Aston Villa
15-6-7Rating 1943
Form: LDWDL
1 – 4
Model Probability
41%
Draw 28%
31%
League One
Chelsea
12-9-7Rating 1913
Form: LDDWW

Model Prediction Through Season

Season Form Coming Into This Game

Aston VillaStatChelsea
28Games played28
1.4Avg goals scored1.8
1.1Avg goals conceded1.2
54% / 21% / 25%Win / Draw / Loss43% / 32% / 25%
64% Home win % / Away win % 43%

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings
Aston VillaStatChelsea
7All-time wins (26 meetings, 4 draws)15
3Last 5 meetings (1 draws)1
1.1Average goals2.3
Last meeting (2025-12-27): Chelsea 1–2 Aston Villa