League One Season Outlook
| # | Team | Win League | Automatic promotion | Promotion playoff | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Leicester |
30.5% | 49.4% | 33.4% | <1% |
| 2 |  Oxford Utd |
14.5% | 27.6% | 35.4% | 1.3% |
| 3 |  Plymouth |
10.9% | 22.2% | 34.5% | 1.5% |
| 4 |  Bradford City |
9.4% | 18.7% | 33.4% | 1.5% |
| 5 |  Huddersfield |
7.5% | 16.2% | 31.9% | 2.2% |
| 6 |  Sheffield Wed |
5.4% | 12.7% | 31.0% | 2.8% |
| 7 |  Reading |
6.4% | 13.4% | 29.4% | 3.3% |
| 8 |  Stockport County |
5.6% | 12.1% | 29.2% | 3.6% |
| 9 |  Cambridge Utd |
1.9% | 4.7% | 17.7% | 8.2% |
| 10 |  Burton |
1.2% | 3.4% | 15.0% | 12.6% |
| 11 |  Stevenage |
1.1% | 3.0% | 13.6% | 11.9% |
| 12 |  Luton |
1.2% | 3.1% | 14.4% | 12.6% |
| 13 |  Wycombe |
1.0% | 3.0% | 13.1% | 13.6% |
| 14 |  Leyton Orient |
<1% | 2.4% | 11.5% | 15.4% |
| 15 |  AFC Wimbledon |
<1% | 2.0% | 9.9% | 17.2% |
| 16 |  Blackpool |
<1% | 1.4% | 8.5% | 20.7% |
| 17 |  Mansfield |
<1% | 1.2% | 8.1% | 21.7% |
| 18 |  Barnsley |
<1% | 1.1% | 6.6% | 24.3% |
| 19 |  Doncaster |
<1% | <1% | 6.4% | 26.0% |
| 20 |  Notts County |
<1% | <1% | 5.4% | 29.8% |
| 21 |  Peterborough |
<1% | <1% | 4.6% | 33.3% |
| 22 |  MK Dons |
<1% | <1% | 3.0% | 39.2% |
| 23 |  Bromley |
<1% | <1% | 2.1% | 47.1% |
| 24 |  Wigan |
<1% | <1% | 2.0% | 50.2% |
Exact Finishing Position Probability
Chance of finishing in each exact table position, 1st to 24th, from the same 10,000 simulations. Darker cells are more likely.
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leicester |
30.5 | 19.0 | 12.2 | 9.2 | 6.8 | 5.2 | 3.7 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 1.1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 |
| Oxford Utd |
14.5 | 13.0 | 10.5 | 9.4 | 8.4 | 7.1 | 5.8 | 5.0 | 4.4 | 3.7 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 |
| Plymouth |
10.9 | 11.3 | 9.7 | 9.4 | 8.1 | 7.2 | 6.3 | 5.3 | 4.7 | 4.4 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 1.0 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 |
| Bradford City |
9.4 | 9.3 | 10.2 | 8.4 | 7.9 | 7.0 | 6.7 | 6.2 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 4.3 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 |
| Huddersfield |
7.5 | 8.7 | 9.0 | 8.2 | 7.4 | 7.2 | 6.6 | 6.1 | 5.5 | 5.3 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 1.4 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 |
| Sheffield Wed |
5.4 | 7.2 | 8.1 | 8.0 | 7.6 | 7.3 | 7.0 | 6.6 | 6.0 | 5.0 | 4.7 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 1.2 | <1 | <1 | <1 |
| Reading |
6.4 | 6.9 | 7.4 | 7.8 | 7.2 | 7.1 | 6.7 | 5.7 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | <1 | <1 |
| Stockport County |
5.6 | 6.5 | 7.3 | 7.7 | 7.2 | 7.1 | 6.4 | 5.9 | 6.2 | 5.6 | 4.8 | 4.4 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.0 | <1 | <1 |
| Cambridge Utd |
1.9 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 4.0 | 4.9 | 5.3 | 5.5 | 6.5 | 5.8 | 5.4 | 5.7 | 5.5 | 5.3 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 4.6 | 4.3 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 1.0 |
| Burton |
1.2 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 3.9 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 5.0 | 5.4 | 5.2 | 5.6 | 5.0 | 5.3 | 5.4 | 5.1 | 4.5 | 5.0 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 2.2 |
| Stevenage |
1.1 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 5.3 | 4.8 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.7 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.0 | 5.6 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 4.6 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 2.0 |
| Luton |
1.2 | 1.9 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 4.0 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 4.9 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.3 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 5.0 | 5.4 | 5.2 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 4.7 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 2.1 |
| Wycombe |
1.0 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 5.3 | 5.1 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 4.9 | 5.5 | 5.0 | 5.2 | 4.6 | 4.3 | 3.8 | 3.2 | 2.3 |
| Leyton Orient |
<1 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 5.0 | 5.3 | 5.5 | 4.9 | 5.2 | 5.4 | 5.6 | 5.7 | 5.5 | 5.2 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 4.2 | 3.7 | 2.9 |
| AFC Wimbledon |
<1 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3.8 | 4.1 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.5 | 5.8 | 5.3 | 5.9 | 5.5 | 5.9 | 5.3 | 4.6 | 4.2 | 3.1 |
| Blackpool |
<1 | <1 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 5.8 | 5.9 | 5.6 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 6.0 | 5.7 | 5.2 | 5.4 | 4.4 |
| Mansfield |
<1 | <1 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 5.1 | 5.9 | 5.1 | 5.4 | 6.1 | 5.3 | 6.0 | 5.9 | 5.8 | 5.6 | 5.5 | 4.8 |
| Barnsley |
<1 | <1 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 4.1 | 4.4 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 5.5 | 6.2 | 6.3 | 6.4 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 6.0 | 5.3 |
| Doncaster |
<1 | <1 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 4.6 | 4.2 | 4.8 | 5.1 | 5.3 | 5.0 | 6.6 | 5.9 | 6.5 | 6.6 | 6.4 | 7.0 | 6.4 | 6.2 |
| Notts County |
<1 | <1 | <1 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4.9 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 6.1 | 6.3 | 6.8 | 6.9 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.3 |
| Peterborough |
<1 | <1 | <1 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.8 | 5.4 | 5.6 | 6.4 | 6.5 | 6.9 | 7.5 | 8.3 | 8.4 | 9.1 |
| MK Dons |
<1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 5.1 | 5.4 | 6.0 | 6.5 | 7.2 | 8.4 | 9.7 | 10.0 | 10.9 |
| Bromley |
<1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 4.5 | 5.0 | 6.1 | 6.8 | 7.8 | 8.5 | 10.2 | 12.8 | 15.6 |
| Wigan |
<1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 4.8 | 5.4 | 6.0 | 7.2 | 8.2 | 9.9 | 13.2 | 18.9 |