| Date | Matchup | Result | Winner | Model Projection | Stage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 4, 2011 | 1–8 | Diamondbacks +7 | Brewers +0.1 | Division | |
| Oct 4, 2011 | 10–1 | Yankees +9 | Yankees +0.1 | Division | |
| Oct 4, 2011 | 3–2 | Phillies +1 | Phillies +0.3 | Division | |
| Oct 4, 2011 | 4–3 | Rangers +1 | Rays +0.1 | Division |