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Bundesliga
Sat, Apr 17, 2027 · 2:30 PM BST

Freiburg vs Mainz Prediction & Win Probability

Freiburg has a 52% chance to win.

3-1-0 · Rating 1824
Form: DWWWW
VS
2-1-1 · Rating 1768
Form: WLWDW
Model Probability
52%
22%
Draw 25%

Model Prediction Through Season

Season Impact

Mainz

Scenario Win LeagueChampions LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegationRelegation playoff
Now <1%12.7%8.6%3.8%<1%
If Win <1%18.6%11.0%2.4%<1%
If Draw <1%14.5%8.0%3.3%<1%
If Lose <1%9.4%8.8%4.5%<1%

Freiburg

Scenario Win LeagueChampions LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegationRelegation playoff
Now 1.9%49.9%13.1%<1%<1%
If Win 2.0%55.5%14.1%<1%<1%
If Draw 1.1%45.6%13.8%<1%<1%
If Lose 1.3%41.0%12.9%<1%<1%

Season Form Coming Into This Game

FreiburgStatMainz
4Games played4
3.0Avg goals scored2.5
0.8Avg goals conceded1.5
75% / 25% / 0%Win / Draw / Loss50% / 25% / 25%
100% Home win % / Away win % 100%

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings
FreiburgStatMainz
10All-time wins (31 meetings, 10 draws)11
2Last 5 meetings (3 draws)0
1.2Average goals1.4
Last meeting (2026-04-12): Mainz 0–1 Freiburg