Premier League Season Outlook
| # | Team | Win League | Champions League | Europa League | Conference League | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Arsenal |
77.1% | 99.6% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 2 |  Manchester City |
11.8% | 91.0% | 3.7% | 2.2% | <1% |
| 3 |  Brighton |
8.0% | 85.0% | 5.7% | 3.6% | <1% |
| 4 |  Liverpool |
1.8% | 63.4% | 10.6% | 7.8% | <1% |
| 5 |  Bournemouth |
<1% | 36.4% | 12.8% | 11.0% | <1% |
| 6 |  Aston Villa |
<1% | 27.2% | 11.3% | 11.0% | 1.4% |
| 7 |  Chelsea |
<1% | 27.1% | 11.1% | 10.9% | 1.3% |
| 8 |  Everton |
<1% | 18.7% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 2.0% |
| 9 |  Brentford |
<1% | 15.2% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 3.1% |
| 10 |  Leeds |
<1% | 13.5% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 3.6% |
| 11 |  Newcastle |
<1% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 7.4% |
| 12 |  Tottenham |
<1% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 11.8% |
| 13 |  Manchester Utd |
<1% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 14.4% |
| 14 |  Nottingham |
<1% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 16.7% |
| 15 |  Fulham |
<1% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 18.0% |
| 16 |  Ipswich |
<1% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 28.4% |
| 17 |  Sunderland |
<1% | <1% | <1% | 1.4% | 35.0% |
| 18 |  Coventry |
<1% | <1% | <1% | 1.2% | 38.6% |
| 19 |  Crystal Palace |
<1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 51.0% |
| 20 |  Hull |
<1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 66.4% |
Exact Finishing Position Probability
Chance of finishing in each exact table position, 1st to 20th, from the same 10,000 simulations. Darker cells are more likely.
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal |
77.1 | 15.4 | 4.9 | 1.7 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 |
| Manchester City |
11.8 | 36.0 | 24.6 | 12.9 | 5.7 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 1.3 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 |
| Brighton |
8.0 | 26.6 | 24.6 | 16.3 | 9.4 | 5.7 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 1.4 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 |
| Liverpool |
1.8 | 10.3 | 16.8 | 20.0 | 14.5 | 10.6 | 7.8 | 5.3 | 4.2 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 1.1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 |
| Bournemouth |
<1 | 3.6 | 8.1 | 10.8 | 13.4 | 12.8 | 11.0 | 9.3 | 7.8 | 5.6 | 4.9 | 3.6 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 |
| Aston Villa |
<1 | 2.3 | 5.4 | 8.5 | 10.8 | 11.3 | 11.0 | 9.7 | 9.2 | 7.4 | 5.7 | 4.9 | 4.1 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.2 | <1 | <1 | <1 |
| Chelsea |
<1 | 2.2 | 4.9 | 8.6 | 11.1 | 11.1 | 10.9 | 10.2 | 8.3 | 7.0 | 6.5 | 5.2 | 4.2 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 1.7 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 |
| Everton |
<1 | 1.2 | 3.5 | 5.8 | 8.1 | 8.9 | 9.8 | 10.0 | 9.4 | 8.4 | 7.4 | 6.5 | 5.6 | 4.8 | 3.9 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 1.2 | <1 | <1 |
| Brentford |
<1 | <1 | 2.3 | 4.7 | 7.2 | 8.3 | 8.6 | 9.3 | 9.0 | 9.4 | 8.3 | 7.5 | 6.1 | 4.8 | 4.2 | 3.6 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 1.1 | <1 |
| Leeds |
<1 | <1 | 2.3 | 4.0 | 6.2 | 7.3 | 8.8 | 9.2 | 9.2 | 8.9 | 8.4 | 7.7 | 6.5 | 5.5 | 4.9 | 3.9 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 1.3 | <1 |
| Newcastle |
<1 | <1 | <1 | 2.1 | 3.7 | 5.1 | 6.3 | 6.9 | 7.8 | 8.8 | 8.6 | 8.4 | 8.4 | 7.7 | 6.7 | 6.2 | 4.6 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 1.5 |
| Tottenham |
<1 | <1 | <1 | 1.1 | 2.1 | 3.5 | 4.7 | 5.9 | 6.9 | 7.7 | 8.6 | 8.2 | 8.9 | 8.6 | 7.8 | 7.6 | 5.8 | 5.6 | 4.2 | 2.1 |
| Manchester Utd |
<1 | <1 | <1 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 5.8 | 6.8 | 7.7 | 8.3 | 9.0 | 8.6 | 8.1 | 8.4 | 7.4 | 5.9 | 5.0 | 3.6 |
| Nottingham |
<1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | 1.6 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 4.4 | 5.3 | 6.4 | 7.3 | 8.3 | 8.2 | 8.9 | 8.9 | 8.5 | 8.3 | 7.3 | 5.6 | 3.8 |
| Fulham |
<1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 4.0 | 4.8 | 6.3 | 6.4 | 8.0 | 8.6 | 8.9 | 9.3 | 9.1 | 8.7 | 7.6 | 6.5 | 4.0 |
| Ipswich |
<1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 3.7 | 3.9 | 5.3 | 6.1 | 7.3 | 8.0 | 9.6 | 9.8 | 11.2 | 11.3 | 10.3 | 6.8 |
| Sunderland |
<1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 3.6 | 4.7 | 5.1 | 5.8 | 7.8 | 8.9 | 10.0 | 11.5 | 11.7 | 11.7 | 11.6 |
| Coventry |
<1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 3.8 | 5.2 | 5.9 | 7.4 | 9.0 | 9.4 | 11.0 | 12.7 | 13.3 | 12.6 |
| Crystal Palace |
<1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 3.4 | 4.6 | 6.0 | 6.9 | 9.0 | 11.4 | 13.8 | 16.8 | 20.4 |
| Hull |
<1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 3.7 | 5.4 | 7.2 | 9.7 | 13.8 | 20.5 | 32.1 |