League Two Season Outlook
| # | Team | Win League | Automatic promotion | Promotion playoff | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Walsall |
13.8% | 13.8% | 34.1% | <1% |
| 2 |  Grimsby |
12.5% | 12.5% | 33.3% | <1% |
| 3 |  Barnet |
11.1% | 11.1% | 32.3% | 1.0% |
| 4 |  Fleetwood |
8.2% | 8.2% | 26.7% | 1.8% |
| 5 |  Cheltenham |
6.2% | 6.2% | 24.2% | 2.1% |
| 6 |  Rotherham |
5.9% | 5.9% | 24.2% | 2.5% |
| 7 |  Crewe |
6.0% | 6.0% | 23.2% | 2.6% |
| 8 |  Chesterfield |
5.7% | 5.7% | 23.1% | 2.9% |
| 9 |  Gillingham |
4.7% | 4.7% | 22.1% | 3.2% |
| 10 |  Bristol Rovers |
5.4% | 5.4% | 21.8% | 2.8% |
| 11 |  Salford |
4.3% | 4.3% | 19.5% | 3.5% |
| 12 |  Exeter |
3.2% | 3.2% | 17.5% | 4.8% |
| 13 |  Swindon |
2.7% | 2.7% | 16.1% | 5.3% |
| 14 |  Tranmere |
2.8% | 2.8% | 15.6% | 5.7% |
| 15 |  Colchester |
1.4% | 1.4% | 10.9% | 8.3% |
| 16 |  York City |
1.3% | 1.3% | 10.4% | 8.5% |
| 17 |  Oldham |
1.0% | 1.0% | 8.3% | 10.5% |
| 18 |  Port Vale |
<1% | <1% | 8.3% | 11.2% |
| 19 |  Newport |
<1% | <1% | 6.5% | 15.0% |
| 20 |  Accrington |
<1% | <1% | 5.8% | 17.0% |
| 21 |  Shrewsbury |
<1% | <1% | 5.2% | 18.5% |
| 22 |  Northampton |
<1% | <1% | 4.6% | 18.5% |
| 23 |  Rochdale |
<1% | <1% | 3.8% | 22.6% |
| 24 |  Crawley |
<1% | <1% | 2.5% | 30.0% |
Exact Finishing Position Probability
Chance of finishing in each exact table position, 1st to 24th, from the same 10,000 simulations. Darker cells are more likely.
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walsall |
13.8 | 10.4 | 8.5 | 8.2 | 6.9 | 5.9 | 5.6 | 5.3 | 4.8 | 4.4 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 1.0 | <1 | <1 | <1 |
| Grimsby |
12.5 | 10.2 | 8.5 | 7.3 | 7.3 | 6.0 | 5.8 | 5.4 | 4.7 | 4.4 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 1.2 | <1 | <1 | <1 |
| Barnet |
11.1 | 9.5 | 8.3 | 7.8 | 6.8 | 6.5 | 6.0 | 5.3 | 4.9 | 4.6 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.1 | <1 | <1 | <1 |
| Fleetwood |
8.2 | 7.3 | 7.4 | 6.2 | 5.8 | 5.9 | 5.5 | 5.6 | 4.7 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 4.2 | 4.6 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 1.0 | <1 |
| Cheltenham |
6.2 | 6.1 | 6.4 | 5.6 | 6.1 | 5.5 | 6.3 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.2 | 4.8 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 1.2 | <1 |
| Rotherham |
5.9 | 6.0 | 6.5 | 6.3 | 5.5 | 5.8 | 5.4 | 5.7 | 5.2 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.0 | 4.2 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 1.1 |
| Crewe |
6.0 | 6.2 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 5.7 | 5.1 | 4.8 | 4.5 | 5.0 | 4.6 | 4.0 | 4.2 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 1.1 |
| Chesterfield |
5.7 | 5.9 | 5.8 | 5.5 | 5.9 | 5.6 | 5.4 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 4.0 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.0 |
| Gillingham |
4.7 | 5.2 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.8 | 4.9 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 4.0 | 3.4 | 4.0 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 1.3 |
| Bristol Rovers |
5.4 | 5.0 | 5.8 | 5.4 | 5.6 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 4.8 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 1.1 |
| Salford |
4.3 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 4.9 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 5.3 | 5.0 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 4.2 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 1.4 |
| Exeter |
3.2 | 3.7 | 4.3 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.0 |
| Swindon |
2.7 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 4.9 | 4.6 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 4.1 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 2.2 |
| Tranmere |
2.8 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 4.1 | 4.8 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 4.5 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 4.0 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 3.1 | 2.6 |
| Colchester |
1.4 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.7 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 5.4 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 5.1 | 4.6 | 4.4 | 3.9 |
| York City |
1.3 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 5.2 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 5.6 | 5.3 | 5.1 | 4.6 | 3.9 |
| Oldham |
1.0 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.6 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 5.5 | 5.0 | 5.7 | 5.9 | 6.0 | 5.6 | 5.8 | 5.5 | 5.1 |
| Port Vale |
<1 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 4.4 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 5.3 | 4.8 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.2 | 5.8 | 5.5 | 5.9 | 5.4 |
| Newport |
<1 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 4.5 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.8 | 6.6 | 7.0 | 7.3 | 7.9 | 7.1 |
| Accrington |
<1 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.8 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 6.0 | 6.2 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.7 | 9.3 |
| Shrewsbury |
<1 | <1 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 6.2 | 6.3 | 7.0 | 6.9 | 7.7 | 9.1 | 9.4 |
| Northampton |
<1 | <1 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 5.4 | 5.7 | 6.5 | 6.9 | 7.3 | 8.6 | 9.0 | 9.6 |
| Rochdale |
<1 | <1 | <1 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3.8 | 4.5 | 4.7 | 5.4 | 5.6 | 5.9 | 7.2 | 7.8 | 8.8 | 10.2 | 12.5 |
| Crawley |
<1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 3.7 | 4.4 | 4.8 | 5.2 | 6.5 | 6.7 | 7.4 | 10.0 | 12.6 | 17.4 |