League Two Season Outlook
| # | Team | Win League | Automatic promotion | Promotion playoff | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Salford |
43.0% | 43.0% | 43.0% | <1% |
| 2 |  Barnet |
22.3% | 22.3% | 48.9% | <1% |
| 3 |  Walsall |
9.2% | 9.2% | 41.4% | <1% |
| 4 |  Exeter |
4.1% | 4.1% | 32.6% | <1% |
| 5 |  Crewe |
3.9% | 3.9% | 27.5% | 1.1% |
| 6 |  Grimsby |
3.2% | 3.2% | 24.9% | 1.4% |
| 7 |  Port Vale |
3.1% | 3.1% | 24.2% | 2.1% |
| 8 |  Fleetwood |
1.7% | 1.7% | 19.9% | 2.0% |
| 9 |  Chesterfield |
1.7% | 1.7% | 18.5% | 2.4% |
| 10 |  Accrington |
1.1% | 1.1% | 14.3% | 4.0% |
| 11 |  Cheltenham |
1.0% | 1.0% | 14.3% | 3.4% |
| 12 |  Tranmere |
1.0% | 1.0% | 14.2% | 4.4% |
| 13 |  Gillingham |
1.1% | 1.1% | 12.8% | 4.6% |
| 14 |  Swindon |
<1% | <1% | 11.8% | 4.9% |
| 15 |  Newport |
<1% | <1% | 11.5% | 5.2% |
| 16 |  York City |
<1% | <1% | 10.4% | 5.5% |
| 17 |  Northampton |
<1% | <1% | 6.3% | 10.4% |
| 18 |  Oldham |
<1% | <1% | 6.0% | 10.8% |
| 19 |  Shrewsbury |
<1% | <1% | 5.7% | 10.6% |
| 20 |  Bristol Rovers |
<1% | <1% | 4.5% | 13.0% |
| 21 |  Colchester |
<1% | <1% | 3.4% | 18.6% |
| 22 |  Rotherham |
<1% | <1% | 1.3% | 27.7% |
| 23 |  Crawley |
<1% | <1% | 1.5% | 32.4% |
| 24 |  Rochdale |
<1% | <1% | 1.0% | 34.5% |
Exact Finishing Position Probability
Chance of finishing in each exact table position, 1st to 24th, from the same 10,000 simulations. Darker cells are more likely.
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salford |
43.0 | 19.6 | 11.1 | 7.4 | 5.0 | 3.7 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 |
| Barnet |
22.3 | 19.2 | 13.1 | 9.3 | 7.4 | 5.7 | 4.8 | 4.0 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 |
| Walsall |
9.2 | 12.0 | 11.4 | 9.8 | 8.3 | 7.1 | 6.3 | 5.7 | 4.8 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 1.0 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 |
| Exeter |
4.1 | 7.1 | 8.9 | 8.9 | 7.7 | 7.4 | 7.1 | 6.0 | 5.6 | 5.9 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.0 | <1 | <1 | <1 |
| Crewe |
3.9 | 6.2 | 7.1 | 7.3 | 6.9 | 7.8 | 6.5 | 6.3 | 6.2 | 5.6 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.0 | <1 | <1 |
| Grimsby |
3.2 | 5.6 | 6.1 | 6.4 | 6.8 | 6.6 | 6.5 | 6.3 | 6.0 | 5.9 | 5.1 | 4.9 | 4.4 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 1.2 | <1 | <1 |
| Port Vale |
3.1 | 4.6 | 6.5 | 6.6 | 6.4 | 6.6 | 6.2 | 6.1 | 5.4 | 5.1 | 4.9 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.4 | <1 |
| Fleetwood |
1.7 | 3.7 | 4.7 | 5.5 | 5.9 | 5.8 | 5.9 | 5.8 | 5.6 | 5.7 | 5.0 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 4.8 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.2 | <1 |
| Chesterfield |
1.7 | 3.4 | 4.1 | 5.2 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 5.3 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.3 | 5.6 | 5.2 | 5.6 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 4.3 | 4.0 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| Accrington |
1.1 | 2.2 | 3.3 | 4.1 | 4.6 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.6 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 5.2 | 5.7 | 5.2 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 1.5 |
| Cheltenham |
1.0 | 2.4 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 4.8 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 6.0 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 4.7 | 5.0 | 4.4 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 1.3 |
| Tranmere |
1.0 | 2.4 | 3.5 | 3.9 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 5.4 | 5.2 | 6.0 | 5.6 | 5.0 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 1.6 |
| Gillingham |
1.1 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 4.9 | 5.4 | 4.7 | 5.0 | 5.4 | 5.3 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 4.4 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 1.9 |
| Swindon |
<1 | 1.9 | 2.7 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 4.3 | 4.9 | 4.6 | 5.1 | 4.7 | 5.5 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 5.5 | 5.3 | 4.8 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 4.6 | 4.2 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 1.8 |
| Newport |
<1 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 3.6 | 4.1 | 4.6 | 5.0 | 4.7 | 4.9 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 5.4 | 5.7 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 4.2 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 3.2 | 2.0 |
| York City |
<1 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 5.1 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 5.8 | 5.4 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 4.3 | 3.7 | 3.1 | 2.4 |
| Northampton |
<1 | <1 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.8 | 5.5 | 5.2 | 6.0 | 5.7 | 6.1 | 6.1 | 6.2 | 6.5 | 6.4 | 5.5 | 4.9 |
| Oldham |
<1 | <1 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 4.4 | 4.7 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 5.6 | 5.8 | 5.4 | 6.4 | 5.8 | 6.3 | 6.2 | 6.0 | 6.1 | 4.8 |
| Shrewsbury |
<1 | <1 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 4.6 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.9 | 5.8 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 6.8 | 7.1 | 6.3 | 4.3 |
| Bristol Rovers |
<1 | <1 | <1 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 3.9 | 4.4 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 5.2 | 5.6 | 5.9 | 6.2 | 6.5 | 6.9 | 7.5 | 7.4 | 7.1 | 6.0 |
| Colchester |
<1 | <1 | <1 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 3.6 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 5.6 | 5.7 | 6.2 | 7.0 | 7.8 | 7.8 | 8.5 | 8.8 | 9.8 |
| Rotherham |
<1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 5.4 | 5.9 | 7.2 | 7.7 | 8.8 | 10.8 | 12.6 | 15.1 |
| Crawley |
<1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 5.3 | 6.0 | 7.5 | 8.2 | 10.5 | 13.3 | 19.1 |
| Rochdale |
<1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 3.4 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 6.5 | 7.3 | 9.1 | 11.1 | 14.6 | 19.9 |