Historical record, recent meetings, scoring profile and performance vs the model's pre-match favorite.
| Date | Match | Result | Winner | Model Projection |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-14 | 3–1 | Cardiff +2 | Cardiff 53% | |
| 2025-08-23 | 0–1 | Cardiff +1 | Luton 44% | |
| 2025-03-11 | 1–2 | Luton +1 | Cardiff 47% | |
| 2024-11-06 | 1–0 | Luton +1 | Luton 47% | |
| 2023-01-31 | 1–0 | Luton +1 | Luton 55% | |
| 2022-08-30 | 1–2 | Luton +1 | Cardiff 41% | |
| 2022-04-18 | 0–1 | Luton +1 | Luton 38% | |
| 2021-11-27 | 1–2 | Cardiff +1 | Luton 50% | |
| 2021-02-16 | 0–2 | Cardiff +2 | Luton 40% | |
| 2020-11-28 | 4–0 | Cardiff +4 | Cardiff 46% | |
| 2020-02-08 | 0–1 | Cardiff +1 | Cardiff 43% | |
| 2019-08-10 | 2–1 | Cardiff +1 | Cardiff 52% |