Historical record, recent meetings, scoring profile and performance vs the model's pre-match favorite.
| Date | Match | Result | Winner | Model Projection |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-18 | 0–1 | Luton +1 | Derby 45% | |
| 2024-12-20 | 2–1 | Luton +1 | Luton 45% | |
| 2022-02-26 | 1–0 | Luton +1 | Luton 53% | |
| 2021-10-19 | 2–2 | Draw | Derby 40% | |
| 2021-04-02 | 2–0 | Derby +2 | Derby 38% | |
| 2020-09-19 | 2–1 | Luton +1 | Luton 51% | |
| 2020-01-28 | 3–2 | Luton +1 | Derby 40% | |
| 2019-10-05 | 2–0 | Derby +2 | Derby 49% |