Historical record, recent meetings, scoring profile and performance vs the model's pre-match favorite.
| Date | Match | Result | Winner | Model Projection |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-08 | 4–0 | Burnley +4 | Burnley 72% | |
| 2024-08-12 | 1–4 | Burnley +3 | Burnley 36% | |
| 2024-01-12 | 1–1 | Draw | Burnley 43% | |
| 2023-10-03 | 1–2 | Burnley +1 | Luton 43% | |
| 2023-02-18 | 0–1 | Burnley +1 | Burnley 52% | |
| 2022-08-06 | 1–1 | Draw | Burnley 62% |