Final Score: Canadiens 4 - Lightning 5
Sunday, December 28, 2025 at 5:00 PM ET
Canadiens @ Lightning
NHL model probabilities, projected margin and matchup analysis
Model Prediction Through Season
| Stat | Canadiens | Lightning |
|---|---|---|
| All-time wins | 59 | 74 |
| Last 5 meetings | 2 | 3 |
| Average goals | 2.6 | 2.8 |
| Last meeting | 1 | 6 |
| Stat | Canadiens | Lightning |
|---|---|---|
| Games played | 37 | 37 |
| Avg goals scored | 3.3 | 3.3 |
| Avg goals conceded | 3.4 | 2.6 |
| Win percentage | 54% | 57% |
| Away win % / Home win % | 59% | 53% |
Recent Results
Canadiens
@ Boston Bruins
Dec 23, 2025 · Margin: +4 · Total: 8
6-2
@ Pittsburgh Penguins
Dec 21, 2025 · Margin: -1 · Total: 7
3-4
vs Pittsburgh Penguins
Dec 20, 2025 · Margin: +4 · Total: 4
4-0
vs Chicago Blackhawks
Dec 18, 2025 · Margin: +3 · Total: 5
4-1
vs Philadelphia Flyers
Dec 16, 2025 · Margin: -3 · Total: 5
1-4
vs Edmonton Oilers
Dec 14, 2025 · Margin: +3 · Total: 5
4-1
@ New York Rangers
Dec 13, 2025 · Margin: -1 · Total: 9
4-5
@ Pittsburgh Penguins
Dec 11, 2025 · Margin: +2 · Total: 6
4-2
vs Tampa Bay Lightning
Dec 9, 2025 · Margin: -5 · Total: 7
1-6
vs St. Louis Blues
Dec 7, 2025 · Margin: -1 · Total: 7
3-4
Lightning
@ Florida Panthers
Dec 27, 2025 · Margin: +2 · Total: 6
4-2
vs St. Louis Blues
Dec 22, 2025 · Margin: +3 · Total: 5
4-1
vs Carolina Hurricanes
Dec 20, 2025 · Margin: +2 · Total: 10
6-4
vs Los Angeles Kings
Dec 18, 2025 · Margin: -1 · Total: 3
1-2
vs Florida Panthers
Dec 15, 2025 · Margin: -3 · Total: 7
2-5
@ New York Islanders
Dec 13, 2025 · Margin: -1 · Total: 5
2-3
@ New Jersey Devils
Dec 11, 2025 · Margin: +4 · Total: 12
8-4
@ Montreal Canadiens
Dec 9, 2025 · Margin: +5 · Total: 7
6-1
@ Toronto Maple Leafs
Dec 8, 2025 · Margin: -2 · Total: 2
0-2
vs New York Islanders
Dec 6, 2025 · Margin: -2 · Total: 2
0-2