Historical record, recent meetings, scoring profile and performance vs the model's pre-match favorite.
| Date | Match | Result | Winner | Model Projection |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027-05-02 | Scheduled | |||
| 2026-12-13 | Scheduled | |||
| 2026-05-17 | 2–0 | Rayo Vallecano +2 | Villarreal 36% | |
| 2025-11-01 | 4–0 | Villarreal +4 | Villarreal 53% | |
| 2025-02-22 | 0–1 | Villarreal +1 | Rayo Vallecano 38% | |
| 2024-12-18 | 1–1 | Draw | Villarreal 50% | |
| 2024-04-28 | 3–0 | Villarreal +3 | Villarreal 53% | |
| 2023-09-24 | 1–1 | Draw | Rayo Vallecano 38% | |
| 2023-05-28 | 2–1 | Rayo Vallecano +1 | Villarreal 49% | |
| 2023-01-30 | 0–1 | Rayo Vallecano +1 | Villarreal 60% | |
| 2022-05-12 | 1–5 | Villarreal +4 | Villarreal 45% | |
| 2021-12-12 | 2–0 | Villarreal +2 | Villarreal 50% | |
| 2019-03-17 | 3–1 | Villarreal +2 | Villarreal 56% | |
| 2018-11-11 | 2–2 | Draw | Villarreal 37% | |
| 2016-04-17 | 2–1 | Rayo Vallecano +1 | Villarreal 46% | |
| 2015-12-06 | 2–1 | Villarreal +1 | Villarreal 52% | |
| 2015-02-15 | 2–0 | Rayo Vallecano +2 | Villarreal 47% | |
| 2014-09-21 | 4–2 | Villarreal +2 | Villarreal 50% | |
| 2014-05-10 | 4–0 | Villarreal +4 | Villarreal 47% | |
| 2014-01-06 | 2–5 | Villarreal +3 | Villarreal 37% | |
| 2012-03-25 | 0–2 | Villarreal +2 | Rayo Vallecano 51% | |
| 2011-10-29 | 2–0 | Villarreal +2 | Villarreal 42% |