Historical record, recent meetings, scoring profile and performance vs the model's pre-match favorite.
| Date | Match | Result | Winner | Model Projection |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027-04-18 | Scheduled | |||
| 2026-08-20 | 1–1 | Draw | Rayo Vallecano 42% | |
| 2026-05-23 | 1–2 | Rayo Vallecano +1 | Alaves 41% | |
| 2025-10-26 | 1–0 | Rayo Vallecano +1 | Rayo Vallecano 45% | |
| 2025-03-29 | 0–2 | Rayo Vallecano +2 | Alaves 39% | |
| 2024-10-26 | 1–0 | Rayo Vallecano +1 | Rayo Vallecano 48% | |
| 2024-03-10 | 1–0 | Alaves +1 | Alaves 45% | |
| 2023-09-15 | 2–0 | Rayo Vallecano +2 | Rayo Vallecano 47% | |
| 2022-04-16 | 1–0 | Alaves +1 | Alaves 37% | |
| 2021-12-18 | 2–0 | Rayo Vallecano +2 | Rayo Vallecano 52% | |
| 2019-01-28 | 0–1 | Rayo Vallecano +1 | Alaves 55% | |
| 2018-09-22 | 1–5 | Alaves +4 | Rayo Vallecano 37% |