Historical record, recent meetings, scoring profile and performance vs the model's pre-match favorite.
| Date | Match | Result | Winner | Model Projection |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-15 | 0–0 | Draw | Middlesbrough 38% | |
| 2024-11-09 | 5–1 | Middlesbrough +4 | Middlesbrough 46% | |
| 2023-04-24 | 2–1 | Luton +1 | Luton 41% | |
| 2022-12-10 | 2–1 | Middlesbrough +1 | Middlesbrough 45% | |
| 2022-03-05 | 2–1 | Middlesbrough +1 | Middlesbrough 44% | |
| 2021-11-02 | 3–1 | Luton +2 | Luton 46% | |
| 2021-05-01 | 1–1 | Draw | Luton 43% | |
| 2020-12-16 | 1–0 | Middlesbrough +1 | Middlesbrough 46% | |
| 2020-02-15 | 0–1 | Luton +1 | Middlesbrough 56% | |
| 2019-08-02 | 3–3 | Draw | Luton 40% |